2025 Breeding Pairs (simulated)
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median · 90% CI · observed = 41
End-of-Sim 10-yr Avg Plover Population
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median · 90% CI · 2061–2070
End-of-Sim 10-yr Avg Breeding Pairs
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median · 90% CI · 2061–2070
Breeding Pairs — Simulated (with observed reference)
Pairs actually breeding each year (nesting = min(population, capacity)). Breeding pairs on the left axis; total off-channel habitat acres on the right axis (bars). Bold lines show the 5th / 50th / 95th percentile of all trials at each year; the observed 2001–2025 record is overlaid for comparison.
Total off-channel habitat (ac, right axis) Observed 2001–2025 Individual trajectories 5th percentile (per-year) Median (per-year) 95th percentile (per-year) Capacity at likely density
Plover Population — Simulated (with observed reference)
Total breeding population returning each year, including pairs that don't nest when habitat is limiting. Each thin line is one Monte Carlo trial spanning 2001–2070. Bold lines show the 5th / 50th / 95th percentile of all trials at each year; the observed 2001–2025 record is overlaid for comparison.
Observed 2001–2025 Individual trajectories (150 of total) 5th percentile (per-year) Median (per-year) 95th percentile (per-year)
Sensitivity — which assumption matters most?
Moving one assumption from its min to its max while holding the others at "likely." Bars show the end-of-sim 10-yr avg breeding pairs — longer bars mean the model is more sensitive to that assumption.
Outcome at assumption's min Outcome at assumption's max Baseline (all at likely)
End-of-Sim Outcomes — where do trials land?
Distribution of each trial's 10-yr average breeding pairs (2061–2070). Percentile markers indicate the 5th, median, and 95th outcomes across all trials.
Trial count (bin) 5th percentile Median 95th percentile
Input Distribution Shapes — 2026+ Assumptions
What each 2026+ input looks like when sampled. Dashed vertical lines mark the user-entered anchors (Min / Likely / Max or P5 / Median / P95). Updates live as you edit values or toggle BetaPERT ↔ Lognormal on fledge ratio.
Method note. Monte Carlo simulation runs the full 2001–2070 horizon. Each trial starts from the specified 2001 breeding-pair count and draws fresh values from every input distribution every year — 7 distributions × 70 years = 490 independent samples per trial. Most inputs are BetaPERT (Min/Likely/Max); the fledge-ratio row can be switched to Lognormal, in which case the same three fields are reinterpreted as P5 / Median / P95 percentile anchors. The historic fledge-ratio distribution applies to 2001–2025; the future distribution takes over in 2026. The PRRIP monitoring record (breeding pairs + fledglings) is overlaid on each chart as a reference line so the simulated hindcast can be compared to actual outcomes. All demographic rounding and the recurrence structure follow the original PRRIP model.

The bold 5th / 50th / 95th percentile lines are pointwise quantiles: for each year they show the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of values across all trials at that year. By construction they never cross (5th ≤ 50th ≤ 95th every year). They describe the statistical envelope, not any individual simulation — the spaghetti shows what individual trials actually look like.